June 3, 2025
1. Introduction
As of 2025, the global sugar market is confronting a profound and long-term shift. For decades, rising global population has underpinned steady increases in sugar consumption. However, this driver is now weakening. Fertility rates around the world are declining sharply, and while total population continues to grow, the rate of growth is slowing.
These demographic trends have significant implications for the future of sugar consumption and supply chains—especially for producers planning investments with long lifecycles.
2. The Baby Boom and Population Growth
The post-World War Two era saw an unprecedented boom in global population. In 1950, the world had approximately 2.5 billion people. It had taken more than a century to climb from 1 billion to 2 billion people. Population growth accelerated due to declining infant mortality, advances in medicine, and increasing life expectancy.
By the late 1960s, annual population growth rates peaked at just over 2%. Today, there are more than 8 billion people on the planet.
This population surge coincided with increasing wealth and expanding commodity markets worldwide. For sugar, consumption growth closely mirrored population increases.
In the 2000s, a rule of thumb emerged: a baseline 1% annual growth in population translated to roughly the same increase in global sugar demand. In years when sugar prices were low, per capita consumption often rose an additional 1-2%, driving total growth to around 2-3%. When prices were high, consumption per person tended to stagnate, and population growth alone was the main driver.
3. Increased Consumer Awareness Slows Sugar Use
However, in the mid-2010s, this relationship began to unravel. Changes in consumer behaviour, rising awareness of sugar intake associated with increased regulation—most notably the introduction of soda taxes in countries like Mexico, Chile, and the UK—started to dampen sugar demand growth.
Meanwhile, food and beverage companies, particularly in China, began substituting sugar with cheaper sweeteners.
Additionally, the rising popularity of GLP-1 receptor agonist drugs, such as Ozempic and Zepbound could accelerate the trend further.
These factors complicate traditional consumption models.
4. Worldwide Fertility Falls Below Replacement Levels
The most significant structural change comes from declining fertility rates worldwide. Globally, fertility has dropped to around replacement level—approximately 2.3 children per female.
Many countries are already well below this threshold: South Korea’s fertility rate is under 0.8 children per female. China stands at around 1.0. The US and India arenear or below replacement levels, with rates of 1.6 and 2.0 respectively.
Even countries not traditionally associated with low fertility, like El Salvador and Malaysia, have rates below replacement.
Only Africa and parts of Asia maintain fertility rates above replacement.
Despite low fertility rates, population growth continues due to population momentum: the large number of people already alive who will live longer and have children in the short term. However, this momentum will eventually wane, and global population is projected to peak within this century.
Current United Nations projections vary but have consistently been revised downward as fertility rates drop faster than anticipated. This means we now think it’s prudent to move from its Medium Fertility estimate, which models a peak around 10.4 billion people in 2086, to its low fertility estimate, which indicates a peak closer to 9 billion in the 2050s.
5. Implications for the Sugar Market
The difference between a peak population of 9 billion versus 10.4 billion has major consequences for sugar consumption. If per capita consumption reaches 25 kg per person—consistent with the long-term trend—peak global sugar demand could range from roughly 225 million tonnes (9 billion population) to 258 million tonnes (10.4 billion).
Moreover, the geographic distribution of population growth will shift where this sugar is consumed. Africa’s population could grow from 1.5 billion today to 2.7 billion by 2100. Urbanisation will concentrate this growth in cities such as Lagos, Kinshasa, and Luanda—already among the largest in the world.
This urbanisation poses logistical challenges. Infrastructure—ports, roads, trucking, and warehousing—must expand and modernise to transport sugar efficiently.
Domestic sugar production in African countries could also need to scale and modernise to meet growing consumption. Questions remain about whether farming can be sufficiently automated and yields improved to sustain supply.
5. Challenges of Ageing Populations
Conversely, many other countries face the challenge of ageing populations. Nations like Japan, Italy, Spain, and South Korea have fertility rates far below replacement, resulting in shrinking workforces. Older consumers typically eat fewer calories, which could dampen sugar consumption.
For agriculture, these demographic shifts could lead to labour shortages and the need for increased automation. Sugar producers in regions with low fertility and immigration could also seek alternative uses for sucrose beyond food consumption—such as ethanol, sustainable aviation fuel and bioplastics.
Stephen Geldart
Head of Analysis
James Brittain
Director, Head of Advisory
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